Breeders’ Plate fancy could be vulnerable

Posted by RS NewsWire at 6:56am on September 29th

The first of Sydney’s new season babies step out at Randwick on Saturday and although it is a day of anticipation, it is also one that presents a conundrum for punters.

A field of 12 fillies will contest the Gimcrack Stakes (1000m), while 14 colts tackle the Breeders’ Plate (1000m), all heading to the races for the first time and all off a single barrier trial.

Racing And Sports’ form expert Simon Dinopoulos says the juvenile features are especially complex this year given the official two-year-old trials were held over slightly varied distances of 843m, 845m and 850m.

“It’s minimal, but it’s something to keep in mind because usually you can just compare times,” Dinopoulos said.

So what does a form expert look for when, well, there isn’t any form?

Dinopoulos explains that he deconstructs the heats by subtracting the 600m sectional time from the overall heat time to assess what happens at either end.

He also relies on a little subjectivity by trusting his eye, and he says it is no coincidence the same trainers routinely do well in these races.

“A lot of the early two-year-old races are won by the same stables each year and that’s what the market gravitates to,” he said.

“It’s interesting because the market doesn’t have a lot to work with, so sometimes they can also be races they make mistakes on.”

Dinopoulos feels that could be the case with the Breeders’ Plate for which the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained Scampi is odds-on.

While ultra-impressed by his trial, he feels the colts’ division will be run at a hectic tempo and that could leave the top fancy vulnerable.

“Scampi looked fantastic in the trial, but at the same time there was no pressure at all and he was allowed to coast,” Dinopoulos said.

“On Saturday, it’s a completely different scenario where you’ve got Gai’s horses in there that are going to eyeball him.

“His mum (Sistonic) was an absolute rocket and Blue Point is the leading first season sire in Europe so no surprise he looks the goods, but I wouldn’t be rushing in to takes odds-on.”

So has Dinopoulos found a Breeders’ Plate smokey?

“It looks like it’s going to be survival of the fittest, who is strongest late, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a horse like Volatile steps up, and Counterpart was sneaky in the trials,” he said.

Tulloch Lodge filly Lady Camelot is a $2.60 favourite for the Gimcrack after winning her 850m heat by almost four lengths and Dinopoulos can’t see too many chinks in her armour.

“(Her dam) Miss Debutante has had two foals to the races, Queen Of The Ball who ran second at her first start in 2021, and she is also a half to Platinum Jubilee, who won this race last year,” Dinopoulos said.

“She is bred to win it and I really liked her trial. She looks to have a serious engine.”

Dinopoulos has one final piece of advice for punters – don’t bet early.

He says it doesn’t take much for an immature, inexperienced two-year-old to be overawed by their first race day.

“Probably more important than anything is how they parade on the day,” he said.

“There will be a big crowd, they’re not the first race so there’s more chance for the crowd to pour in.

“You want to see them parade well and in terms of getting set early, they might run their race in the parade and then you’ve already done your money.”

More Racing News

Watson plans to Storm Away with the Magic Millions WA Classic

Storm Away delivered a strong first-up performance on debut at Ascot last Saturday. Trained by Mitchell Pateman, the gelding finished second but left a lasting impression despite the narrow defeat. After breaking slowly and racing wide, he surged to the front but was edged out by Monte Tremezzo by a long head. A...

Today

Seven internationals entered for Sydney autumn carnival

Maestro trainer William Haggas is once again setting his sights on Sydney’s prestigious autumn carnival, nominating three of his top runners, including the seasoned Group 1 campaigner, Dubai Honour. Haggas’ trio is part of a strong international contingent, with a total of seven overseas horses being aimed at marquee events. These...

Yesterday

G1 Lightning Stakes ures James McDonald to Melbourne

Top jockey James McDonald receives a flood of ride requests each week from leading stables, especially those based in Sydney. When major races clash between his hometown and Melbourne, deciding where to ride becomes a tough call. This Saturday, McDonald will head to Flemington to partner with the Chris Waller-trained Switzerland in...

Yesterday

Australasian Oaks campaign starts at Flemington

Trainer Dan O’Sullivan is setting his sights on Group 1 glory in Adelaide as his promising filly, Too Darn Discreet, begins her campaign at Flemington. Her ultimate target is the prestigious Australasian Oaks (2000m), scheduled for late April at Morphettville. She kicks off her autumn preparation this Saturday in the Listed...

Yesterday

Ndola out to win family race in CS Hayes Stakes

Lindsay Park trainers Ben, Ben & JD Hayes are still in pursuit of a victory in a race that holds deep significance for their family legacy. Saturday’s Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) at Flemington is named in honor of their grandfather, Colin Hayes, a Hall of Fame trainer who founded...

Yesterday

Pride excited ahead of Ceolwulf’s return in G2 Apollo Stakes

Via Sistina and Ceolwulf are set to face off for just the second time in the Apollo Stakes at Randwick, a race that could spark a thrilling rivalry throughout the carnival. Both recognized as elite middle-distance runners, they may find the 1400-metre trip of Saturday’s race shorter than ideal. However, their...

Yesterday

Expressway Stakes the ‘Way to go early for Joliestar

Chris Waller’s Apollo Stakes contenders will take center stage at Randwick this Saturday, but the champion trainer also has strong support in the day’s other $300,000 Group 2 races. Joliestar has been entered for the 1400-metre Apollo alongside Via Sistina, Fangirl, and Atishu, but is set to begin her campaign in...

Feb 11th

Black Caviar Lightning Stakes could be the making of Maher’s Empire

The only certainty is that Growing Empire will kick off his campaign in Saturday’s Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington. However, the outcome of that race will shape the rest of his season. Trainer Ciaron Maher is eager to secure a maiden Group 1 victory for the son of Zoustar. The three-year-old narrowly...

Feb 11th

Mount Barker Cup continues good times for Madi Derrick

Jockey Madi Derrick continued her impressive run of form, securing a double for trainer Ray Malpass, including a standout victory in the Mount Barker Cup (2000m) on Sunday. Seven-year-old gelding Big Swoop proved too strong for his competitors, rounding off a successful day for Malpass, who also saw Sirota claim a...

Feb 11th

Strideaway set for Magic Millions WA 2YO Classic goal

Trainer Neville Parnham says Strideaway has improved since her perfect return and is spot on to end his Magic Millions WA 2YO Classic (1200m) hoodoo at Pinjarra on Saturday. A daughter of Alabama Express, Strideaway created a big impression first up and stamped her Magic Millions credentials with authority, gunning down Do...

Feb 11th