Via Sistina’s in elite company with Cox Plate rating

Posted by RS NewsWire at 5:21pm on October 28th

The superlatives for Via Sistina’s eight-length romp in Saturday’s Group 1 W S Cox Plate (2040m) came in thick and fast, only exacerbated when noting she broke Winx’s track record by nearly two seconds, and the rating backs up most of the applause.

Via Sistina has run to a Racing & Sports rating of 132, which is the fourth-highest Cox Plate rating recorded and just two pounds off the best, with data going back to 1980.

Racing & Sports head of handicapping Adam Blencowe, the man charged with assigning Via Sistina 132, says the rating is undeniably high, but must be taken in context.

“What we might call outlier results such as this one stress the importance of having a ratings model underpinned by a strong statistical process. Those processes can’t simply by picking a horse that has ‘run to form’, and in fact not one horse in the 2024 Cox Plate produced their pre-race mark,” Blencowe said.

“The Timeform method, which not only rates races on horses but horses on races, is long established and here points to a rating between 131 and 134. That, along with the time, results in a rating of 132.”

Only two horses have recorded a higher rating in the Cox Plate, and they hold seven plates between them – Winx and Kingston Town.

Winx ran to 134 in her second Cox Plate, interestingly when also an eight-length winner in 2016 while she also ran to 133 in her first of four wins when thumping the 127 rated Criterion and subsequently 129 rated Highland Reel.

“Winx is an obvious point of comparison – from the same yard and famous for her Cox Plate routes. Winx was rated 133 and 134 by Racing and Sports in her first two Cox Plates, before running 127-129 in the two that followed. So, Via splits the difference. She is living in Winx’s world, though that is tempered somewhat by the fact that Winx produced form at or above this level seven times,” Blencowe said.

Kingston Town, who won three Cox Plates from 1980-1982, ran to a rating of 133 on the Racing & Sports scale in his first win when he scored by five lengths. His other two wins rated 128 and 129.

To be within 1-2 pounds of Winx and Kingston Town is incredible, but perhaps just as incredible is the list of Cox Plate winers she’s outrated.

Only Winx, Kingston Town and now Via Sistina have broken 130 in a Cox Plate with six horses having run to a Racing & Sports rating of 129 – Might And Power, So You Think, Strawberry Road, Sunline and Northerly.

Via Sistina’s win, albeit somewhat in isolation, given her previous peak rating was 124, achieved the start prior in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m), is backed up by a scintillating time figure.

The time of 2.01.07 is approximately 11 lengths faster than Winx’s track record, which Blencowe says is “unescapably fast”, especially considering the rest of the card “points to good conditions for running fast times, but not in the extreme.”

“The time is a large part of the assessment. It is true that track records – and times in general – are, in large part, the product of the conditions under which they are run. But this was inescapably fast. The margin between Via Sistina is as good a clue as any. That a set of quality horses from around the globe were unable to run within eight lengths of the time tells us that running so fast was far from easy,” Blencowe said.

Often in racing people can overreact to a performance before having every bit of information, but by all measurable factors, Via Sistina has produced one of the best performances ever seen on an Australian racetrack, and put herself amongst an elite class of thoroughbred.

More Racing News

Grahame Begg mares to clash in Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes

Grahame Begg finds himself in a difficult position as he prepares to run two of his mares in a Stakes race at Sandown, a situation he acknowledges is not ideal. Both Miraval Rose and So Glamorous are set to compete in the Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes (1200m) on Saturday. The...

Yesterday

Widden-born Flex chases G3 Widden Stakes win

Widden Stud may not have a runner carrying its famous silks in this weekend’s Rosehill race named in its honor, but the stud’s influence will still be felt in the $250,000 Group 3 Widden Stakes. Leading contender The Playwright is sired by Widden stallion Written By, while another runner, Mac Daddy...

Yesterday

Gear change for Blitzburg in G3 Canonbury Stakes

Trainers Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou are hoping the addition of winkers will help Snitzel colt Blitzburg bounce back to winning form after an unsuccessful Magic Millions campaign. Originally named as the second emergency for the $3 million Magic Millions Classic, Blitzburg’s connections ultimately had to withdraw him due to a...

Yesterday

Ceolwulf leads home big guns in trial

Ceolwulf has sharpened up for his upcoming return in the Apollo Stakes with an impressive barrier trial victory at Warwick Farm, signaling a promising autumn campaign ahead. The dual Group 1 winner dictated the tempo in Thursday’s 1000m heat, cruising to the line unchallenged to defeat Via Sistina, a likely rival...

Yesterday

Second time lucky for Boa Vista in G3 Chairman’s Stakes

Boa Vista will be hoping for better luck this time around as she gears up for her debut at Sandown. The two-year-old, trained by Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr, is set to line up in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes (1000m) on Saturday after missing a similar race last weekend. She...

Yesterday

Refreshed Arataki chases second G3 Bellmaine Stakes win

Warrnambool-based trainer Matthew Williamson has noticed a renewed spark in Wrote To Arataki, and he’s hopeful it will translate into another Stakes victory at Sandown. The mare is set to return to racing in the Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes (1200m) on Saturday, a race she previously won in 2023. Last year,...

Yesterday

The Quokka on the radar for former Perth star

Expensive Perth-bred gelding Bustling might make his return to his home state for a lucrative race after a less-than-ideal debut under Melbourne-based trainers Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr in September. Previously trained by Dan Morton, Bustling gained significant attention in Australian racing circles after a sensational start to his career....

Yesterday

Stars aligning for Brudenell in the Southern Cross Stakes

It has been just under a year since Brudenell finished a close fifth in the Oakleigh Plate, and trainer Kris Lees is optimistic that the stakes performer is returning to that level of form. The five-year-old was beaten by less than two lengths in the Group 1 sprint, but some minor...

Yesterday

It’s all Business for Walker mare ahead of Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes

The Mark Walker stable has opted for a softer first-up assignment for It’s Business Time as the New Zealand mare makes her long-awaited return to the racetrack. Although she was also entered for the Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes (1200m) at Sandown on Saturday, It’s Business Time will instead run in...

Yesterday

Mr Brightside prepares for CF Orr Stakes return

Mr Brightside will return to the scene of his maiden victory when he trials at Geelong. The Lindsay Park-trained galloper won his maiden at Geelong in July 2021, his third race start and the beginning of a six-race winning streak that eventually led to Mr Brightside becoming one of Australia’s best...

Jan 28th